Hengli Petrochemical (600346): Refining and Chemical Projects Put into Operation, Promote Performance and Huge Future Growth Space

Hengli Petrochemical 都市夜网 (600346): Refining and Chemical Projects Put into Operation, Promote Performance and Huge Future Growth Space

Event description: On August 10, 2019, Hengli Petrochemical (600346) released its 2019 Interim Report.

In the first half of 2019, the company realized operating income 都市夜网 of 423.

33 ppm, an increase of 60 in ten years.

04%; net profit attributable to mother is 40.

21 ppm, an increase of 113 in ten years.

62%.

The preliminary trend of profit growth is that the large-scale refining and chemical projects will be put into full production and produce results, and the profit of the “polyester + PTA” industry chain business will increase significantly.

Event comment: The oil refining project is fully put into operation, new projects are about to start up, and the performance is growing rapidly.Ester “development model of the entire industry chain.

Interim report realized 325 trillion conversion and depreciation11.

3 ‰, increasing by 2 every year.

5.6 billion yuan.

Refining and chemical projects (excluding self-use PX) revenue 92.

400 million, increased income from refined oil 20.

100 million, totaling 112.

5.7 billion yuan, accounting for 26 of operating income.

59%.

Refinery segment achieved net profit13.

600 million, far exceeding market expectations.

The company’s 180 budget / year plasma, 80 additives / year re-investment, 72 forecast / year styrene will start feeding in September this year, 500 tons / year PTA, 150 tons / year ethylene conversion will start in October this year.

The scale of the company can fully enjoy the profit increase of 450 tons / year PX of refined products, and supply its own polyester industry chain. At the same time, it can also improve the overall profitability through refined oil and other chemical products.

The growth of future performance is highly certain.

PTA profit growth, the company’s performance benefited the company’s PTA in the first half of 2019 achieved 160 revenue.

48 ppm, accounting for 41 of operating income.

38%.

The average price of PTA in the first half of 2019 was 5492.

25 yuan / ton, an increase of 10 per year.

69%.

Its raw material PX average price is 7066.

10 yuan / ton, an increase of 12 in ten years.

58%.

Press 0.

655 coefficient ratio calculation, PX price growth rate is lower than PTA growth rate, driving the company’s performance to rise.

The company now has a PTA production capacity of 660 pounds / year, and another 500 tons / year PTA project is under construction. It is expected to start operation in October this year, when the company’s total PTA capacity will increase to 1160 tons / year.

This will help the company further strengthen its competitive advantage in scale and cost.

We expect that as a large number of refining and chemical plants are put into production, the price center of PX will gradually decline and move downward, the profit of the PX-PTA-polyester industry chain will be redistributed, and PTA will help to benefit.

At present, PTA profit is accompanied by a decline in the price of PX into the increasing channel. Until August 9, the PTA spread was 804.

19 yuan / ton, a month-on-month decrease of 50.

45%, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.47%.

The high profitability of PTA will drive the company’s performance growth.

The market for polyester filament yarns declined slightly, and the company’s main product for civilian polyester filaments, which has a small impact on performance, was FDY, which sold 64 in the first half of 2019.

52 digits, sales of industrial polyester filaments 7.

30 ounces.

Civil polyester filaments have an average purity of 9994.

14 yuan / ton, temporarily decreased by 3.

78%; the average molecular weight of industrial polyester filaments is 10,766.

58 yuan / ton, down 13 before.

72%.

However, benefiting from the company’s differentiated strategy, the company’s product gross margin far exceeds the industry average, and enters the third quarter sales season, and its profit level is expected to remain high.

Starting from September 1, the United States will impose a 10% tariff on Chinese goods worth US $ 300 billion, and textile exports will be restricted to a certain extent.

However, the recent depreciation of the renminbi has increased, stimulating exports, and exceeding the industry’s average level of production capacity cost and operating quality advantages. The increase in tariffs has little effect on performance.

Investment suggestion: We believe that the company is the leader of the polyester industry chain. The smooth implementation of refining and chemical projects has significantly improved performance and is optimistic about the company’s long-term development.

It is expected that the net profit attributable to mothers in 2019/20/21 will be 91.

1/127.

6/163.

4 trillion, corresponding to EPS 1.

29/1.

81/2.

32 yuan, the corresponding PE is 9.

5/6.

8/5.

3 times, maintaining “strongly recommended” level.

Risk reminders: Inventory losses caused by a sharp drop in oil prices; lower than expected downstream demand; poor sales of refined oil products; and less than expected construction progress of other projects.

Year of the Rat A-share strong aid continues, and smart money continues to flow in

Year of the Rat A-share strong aid continues, and “smart money” continues to flow in
For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!  A-share support in the Year of the Rat has continued-“smart money” has continuously flowed in, and many 武汉夜生活网 places have adopted “temperature” policies to consolidate SMEs .Suddenly caught off guard, but recently, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have stated that they have confidence in the Chinese economy, that the Chinese government has enough policy space to deal with this epidemic, and has injected considerable market liquidityThese predictions can alleviate the losses caused by the “epidemic” to China’s economic growth.  At present, many regions have introduced “temperature” policies for enterprises.For example, Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Shandong and other places have successively introduced a series of policies to support the development of enterprises, especially to effectively reduce the burden on SMEs.  Affected by the short-term impact of the epidemic, the first trading day after the A-share market fell, and the market has continued to grow in the past two days.Some institutions claim that “A shares have the opportunity to make a dip.”It can be seen that the abundance of so-called “smart money” has continued to have a net inflow in the near future and has become a force that cannot be ignored in the A-share market.  Experts: China ‘s economy is improving. Emerging industries ‘contribution to the economy will continue to increase. Recently, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have stated their weight and are confident in the Chinese economy. The Chinese government has enough policy space to deal with this.The epidemic situation has injected a considerable amount of liquidity into the market, which can gradually alleviate the losses caused by the “epidemic situation” to China’s economic growth.  Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission Lian Weiliang frankly stated in the press conference of the State Council ‘s antiques on February 3 that from the current situation, the impact of the “epidemic” on the current Chinese economy, especially on consumption, is increasing, especially on transportation, Cultural tourism, hotel catering and film and television entertainment services have a greater impact on consumption.But to experts, this impact is only temporary and temporary, and will not change the fundamentals of China’s long-term positive economy.  Although Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, continues to have an “outbreak,” the long-term positive trend of China’s fundamentals can still be confirmed in the following two aspects: First, before the “outbreak”, someCompanies have appeared to replenish inventory funds.The PMI production index continued to rise, and the recovery of the global economy has boosted corporate production, and the cycle of corporate capital expenditures has expanded.At the same time, the gap between new orders and finished product inventory has increased, and raw material inventory has increased, which means that companies with overweight infrastructure and real estate share have gradually started to prepare goods in advance.Furthermore, the epidemic can only delay the pace of replenishing inventory, but cannot change the inventory replenishmentMegatrends; Second, the Ministry of Finance has launched a special debt issuance on January 2 with a higher issuance volume than the same period last year.At the same time, the country continues to add more to the development of emerging industries.Driven by industrial transformation, the contribution rate of emerging industries to economic development will increase, and the alternative tradition of investment will also emerge in two new sizes.  The intensive policies issued in many places to relieve the difficulties and to delay the payment of social insurance premiums are indispensable to face the epidemic situation. In many places, enterprises have adopted a “temperature” policy.Among them, deferred payment of social insurance premiums is indispensable. Shanghai adjusts the social security payment base only three months a month, which will reduce the burden on enterprises by more than 10 billion yuan.  On February 4th, Chongqing issued the “Twenty Policies and Measures to Support Small and Medium-sized Enterprises to Solve the Pneumonia Epidemic of New Coronavirus Infection”, which covers financial support, tax and fee reduction, and optimization of services. These policies replaceWill be implemented until June 30, 2020.  On February 4, Shandong Province issued “Several Opinions on Supporting the Stable and Healthy Development of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises in Response to the Epidemic of New Coronavirus Infection Pneumonia”, and proposed 20 specific measures from 4 aspects to support the SMEs in the province to actively respond to the impact of the epidemic and achieve stability.healthy growth.  Democracy, Shanghai, Beijing, and Beijing also successively introduced policies such as extending the collection period of social insurance premiums, and increased credit support and subsidies for SMEs affected by the epidemic.  In addition to social security, reasonable and rented policy support, Guo Yiming, director of investment consultants of Jufeng Investment Gu, also offers preferential policies on credit in many places, but the proportion of small, medium and micro enterprises receiving loans from the financial sector is still relatively low.It is recommended to establish a one-to-one assistance mechanism, or build a small and medium-sized enterprise micro-enterprise lyrical fund to effectively help small and medium-sized enterprises to rescue them; gradually, it can also properly guide the appropriate transformation and conversion of small and medium-sized enterprises, thereby reducing offline activities and actively shifting to onlineTo ensure the smooth progress of production activities.Of course, for some industries that have been severely affected by the epidemic, the government must provide some supplements.Finally, for small and medium-sized enterprises themselves, they also need to save themselves to minimize costs.  According to the statistics of the flush flush iFinD data from foreign stocks, A-shares underestimated the attractiveness of large stocks. According to statistics from the straight flush iFinD, from February 3 to February 5, there was a cumulative net inflow of northbound funds.01 billion.  From the perspective of the three trading days after the Spring Festival, Li Zhan, chief economist at Zhongshan Securities, said that foreign exchange inflows maintained the overall situation in January this year.Foreign institutional investors generally believe that the probability of the epidemic’s impact on the Chinese economy is seasonal. The intrinsic value and advantages of high-quality companies and A-share core assets will continue to maintain the buying trend and lower the A-share core quality assetsBottom.  At present, the stock market value of Beishang Capital accounts for nearly 3% of the total market value of A shares in circulation, which is continuing to rise steadily, and is closer to the proportion of domestic institutions.In the sense of leading the market, going northward has some predictability.In the context of the current epidemic situation and the rhythm of the A-share market, the large inflow of funds to the north is of great significance in stabilizing market sentiment, attracting long-term funds for value investment, and promoting the internationalization of A-shares.  The A-share market sentiment has gradually stabilized. It is expected that the capital of Kitakami will maintain a net inflow situation 杭州桑拿 in the short term, and the net inflow for the week after the holiday is expected to reach about 30 billion.Under the Shanghai-London Stock Connect, China-Japan ETF interoperability, amendments to the QFII / RQFII system rules, comprehensive launch of H-shares “full circulation” reforms, and other multiple measures, if the 2019 annual net inflow is used as a reference benchmark, it is expected to go north in 2020The net inflow of funds is expected to reach 300 billion yuan.

Polyfluoropoly (002407): an outstanding leader in lithium hexafluorophosphate

Polyfluoropoly (002407): an outstanding leader in lithium hexafluorophosphate

This report reads: We believe that cost will drive additional demand upwards, and it is expected that the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate will rise steadily in 2019; polyfluoropoly, as the domestic company with 佛山桑拿网 the most lithium hexafluorophosphate replacement, promotes direct benefits.

Investment points: first coverage, overweight rating.

Polyfluoropoly is a domestic leader in the field of inorganic fluorination, and its lithium hexafluorophosphate production capacity and transportation volume are among the highest in the industry.

EPS is expected to be 0 in 2019-2021.

48, 0.

60, 0.

68 yuan, with reference to the average assessment level of the industry, and given a certain premium, the target price is 16.

8 yuan, corresponding to the 2019 35X PE, for the first time coverage, increase the level of holdings.

Costs are driving increased demand, and we expect lithium hexafluorophosphate prices to rise steadily in 2019.

Since 2015, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has increased rapidly from about 10 mg / ton to 4杭州桑拿网0 million, and then the capacity has been increased again. The price of the product has gradually dropped to about 10 million.

After the recent rise in the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, we believe that prices will continue to rise steadily in 19 years: 1) According to our calculations, the current production cost of lithium hexafluorophosphate is about 7.

550,000 yuan / ton (excluding tax), the sales price of less than 100,000 yuan has reached the company’s gross profit margin dropped to about 10%, after considering factors such as sales expenses, it has been close to some of the company’s cost line, so companies are facing price increases2) From the demand side, we expect that by 2019, the sales of new energy vehicles will continue to grow rapidly, and emissions are expected to increase to about 30%, and the second half of the year will be the peak period of battery installation, which will further promote the development of lithium hexafluorophosphate.product demand.

Polyfluoride and multi-capacity continued to expand, leading enterprises took the lead to benefit.

The company’s lithium hexafluorophosphate production capacity reached 6,000 tons at the end of 2018, and it is expected that the production capacity will reach 9,000-10,000 tons in 2019. Correspondingly, the company’s product measurement volume is expected to rise from 5440 tons in 2018 to 7500-8000 tons in 2019, and the lithium hexafluorophosphate business is back on track.

Catalyst: Risk of price rise of lithium hexafluorophosphate: New energy vehicle sales are lower than expected, raw material prices have risen sharply

Hang Ke Technology (688006): Focus on lithium battery post-processing overseas customers expand smoothly

Hang Ke Technology (688006): Focus on lithium battery post-processing overseas customers expand smoothly

Investment Highlights Companies are listed on the first criteria.

Leading company in lithium battery post-processing equipment, with a market share of about 20% in 2018.

The company’s core product is charge and discharge equipment, and demand is mainly affected by the expansion of downstream lithium battery manufacturers.

The company’s 2018 revenue was 11.

100 million (+43.

9%), of which charge and discharge equipment revenue accounted for 82%, gross profit accounted for 90%.

Charge and discharge equipment includes power battery equipment and consumer battery equipment, and the revenue in 2018 was 4 respectively.

100 million and 4.

9 trillion, accounting for 37% of total revenue.

1% and 44.

3%, the growth rate was 27.

3%, 41.

1%.

The company’s business has continued to grow rapidly in recent years, mainly benefiting from the expansion of downstream lithium battery manufacturers, the expansion of their own customers, and the increase in the proportion of supporting customers.

In 2018, China’s lithium battery post-processing equipment output value was about 6.2 billion, and the company’s lithium battery post-processing equipment production inventory was about 12.

400 million, accounting for about 20%.

Benefiting from the development of new energy vehicles, the power battery equipment business is expected to continue to grow rapidly.

Worldwide sales of electric vehicles in 2018 were 201.

80,000 (+64.

9%), of which China’s new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million (+59.

9%) and 125.

60,000 vehicles (+61.

7%).

Benefiting from downstream demand, the global power battery in 2018 will supplement 106GWH (+55.

2%), of which China achieved 65GWH (+46) of power battery replenishment in 2018.

1%) to achieve an installed capacity of 56.

98GWH (+56.

5%).

Downstream demand is good, and manufacturers’ expected expansion of output value has driven the company’s power battery equipment to continue to grow rapidly. 2016, 2017, and 2018 revenue were 1 respectively.

100 million, 3.

200 million (+195.

6%), 4.

10,000 yuan (+27.

3%).

Overseas customers developed smoothly, and the proportion of revenue increased significantly.

The company’s foreign revenue was 0 from 2017.

80,000 yuan, increased to April 2018.

10,000 yuan, mainly due to a significant increase in LG’s revenue contribution.Revenue from LG in 2017 and 2018 were 1.

400 million, 4.

0 ppm, contributing 76 of the revenue increase.

5%.

The company’s 2018 revenue from power battery equipment and consumer battery equipment from foreign brands was 0.

700 million (+ 265%) and 4.

4 ppm (+ 44%), showing that the company’s products have been continuously recognized by overseas customers, and the supporting ratio has continued to increase.

Profit forecast and estimation.

The company’s business has reached a certain scale and the growth rate is expected, but it will still maintain rapid growth.

Comparable listed companies include Jingxian Electronics, Nebula, Pioneer Intelligence, Winshare Technology, etc., which correspond to 29 times PE in 2019, and the lowest and highest are 23 times and 33 times, respectively.

In the next three years, the combined company ‘s net profit will increase at a compound growth rate of about 25%. 南宁桑拿 We believe that the company’s PE corresponds to 25% in 2019?
Between 30 times, it is a reasonable estimate of the horizontal interval, and the corresponding interval is 22.

05-26.

46 yuan.

Taking into account the initial stage of the development of the science and technology board, investors may be allocated additional bids, which may exceed the target range in the short term.

Risk reminders: 1) The risk of the fundraising project is less than expected; 2) The risk of overseas trade and exchange; 3) The risk of technology and product substitution; 4) The risk of policy changes in the new energy industry; 5) The risk of changes in large customers.

Xinquan Co., Ltd. (603179): Product support from independent to joint venture is expected to improve profitability

Xinquan Co., Ltd. (603179): Product support from independent to joint venture is expected to improve profitability

Performance is in line with expectations.

The company achieved operating income of 21 in the first three quarters.

45 ‰, an average of 18 in ten years.

6%, to achieve net profit attributable to mother 1.

31 ‰, 42 years ago.

7%, net of non-attributed net profit1.

2.2 billion, previously 45 per second.

7%, EPS is 0.

57 yuan.

The lower growth rate of net profit was mainly due to lower gross profit margin and higher period expense ratio.

Affected by the growth rate of sales of downstream customers, the short-term gross margin of the company affected was 21 in the first three quarters.

3%, ten-year average 1.

Nine averages, of which the gross profit margin in the third quarter was 20%, which was extended by 3.

1 average value, the ring value is 0.

The 7 averages are expected to be mainly due to the increase in sales volume of downstream car companies, which will affect the revenue scale and increase production capacity to generate depreciation, which will lead to a decline in gross profit margin.

Expenses during the first three quarters14.

3%, an increase of 2 per year.

2 units; management expense ratio (including R & D expenses) 8.

8%, an increase of 1 per year.

6 units, of which R & D expense rate increased by 0.

6 units.

The company’s net cash flow from operating activities in the first three quarters was -1.

78 ‰, with a ten-year average of 139.

8%, mainly due to an increase in bank acceptances and an increase in cash payments.

Revenue improved in the third quarter, and the company ‘s product portfolio expanded from autonomous to FAW-Volkswagen, which is expected to increase profitability and estimate levels.

Realized operating income in the third quarter6.

970,000 yuan, an increase of 0 from the previous month.

4%, ten-year average.

1%, narrowing the excess by 10.

1 single; 3774 net profit attributable to mother.

50,000, the molecular weight is 1.

8%.

  From the perspective of the company’s downstream customers’ sales in the third quarter, Geely Auto Parts17.

2%, narrowing beyond 7.

4 units; SAIC passenger cars grow by 6 per year.

6%, the growth rate improved by 15.

4 single; improved sales of downstream customers drove the company’s revenue improvement.

The company actively expands new customers. Among its own brands, this year has been equipped with BYD, GAC Weilai, GAC New Energy and other models. The joint venture brand, Sinotech, has been equipped with FAW-Volkswagen Jetta new models. The SUV VS5 and sedan VA3 were launched in September.Reaching 8,140 and 2,940 vehicles is expected to become the company’s profit growth point.With the overall stabilization of the auto industry and the improvement in sales of downstream car companies, the company’s profit improvement is expected to improve in the fourth quarter.

  Financial forecast and investment proposal: slightly adjust the expense ratio and gross profit margin. It is expected that the EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.

99, 1.

35, 1.

71 yuan (originally 1.

17.1.

46, 1.

81 yuan), with reference to comparable company estimates, giving the company 13 times PE in 2020, with a target price of 17.

55 yuan, maintain BUY rating.

  Risk warning: Passenger car industry demand is lower than expected, and passenger car and commercial vehicle 杭州桑拿网 trim products are less than expected.

Tenda Construction (600512): Significant change in first quarter results in line with expected revenue conversion

Tenda Construction (600512): Significant change in first quarter results in line with expected revenue conversion
There are sufficient orders in hand, and the order is expected to continue to grow. In 2018, the company won the contract amount of 82.4.0 billion, an increase of 8.91%, of which, the amount of single construction contract increased by 90.03%, the amount of financing construction contract is reduced by 100%.Benefiting from the integration of the Yangtze River Delta and the infrastructure needs released by the Hangzhou Asian Games, orders are expected to continue to increase in the next few years.Currently the company has 228 projects under construction.50,000 yuan, 6 of the 2018 revenue.49 times.The company won the contract amount in the first quarter of 20192.5.9 billion, the decline declines, or the base was high due to the successful bid for the construction project of Hangzhou Metro Line 7 in the first quarter of 2018. There is room for improvement in gross profit margin, and revenue conversion promotes speedup. In 2018, the company achieved operating income of 35.1.3 billion, with a decrease of 2.13%.Among them, the operating income of engineering construction segment increased by 1.38%, real estate development business revenue decreased by 37.53%, or because the company will no longer add reserve land since 2014.The company’s gross profit margin in 2018 was 10.83%, same decrease of 2.43 average values, of which the gross profit margin of engineering construction business increased by zero.12 units, the gross profit margin of real estate development business decreased by 30.43 units, or affected by project closure.It is expected that the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta will gradually increase and the demand for infrastructure in the Hangzhou Asian Games will increase. The company is expected to sign new high-margin PPP projects in the Yangtze River Delta region to increase gross profit margins, and accelerate the conversion of order revenue in 2019.The company achieved operating income in the first quarter of 20197.6.8 billion, an increase of 29.24%; gross profit margin 9.80%, the same minus 1.55 single, or high-margin PPP projects were completed in 2018. Affected by trust products, the expense ratio increased during the 18-year period, and the first-quarter performance conversion was in line with the company’s expected period expense in 201812.4%, with an increase of 7 units, of which the sales expense ratio and management expense ratio are 0.3%, 3.4%, stable from the previous year; financial expenses 4.6%, the same increase of 3.Five fines, mainly due to the company’s payment of the trust plan priority income; R & D expense ratio 4.07%, the same increase of 3.18 units, mainly due to the company’s budget for construction method research in 2018.The company lost 0 in fair value changes in 2018.93 trillion, mainly due to the downturn in the stock market in 2018, the company’s investment in the trust product Shaan Guozheng Zheng No. 71 is serious.In 2018, the company achieved net profit attributable to mother.26 trillion, the same minus 90.56%.The stock market conditions improved in the first quarter of 2019, and trust products increased the company’s net profit by about 2.3.8 billion; Net profit of main business is about 0.6.2 billion, with a net interest rate of approximately 8%.In the first quarter of 2019, the company achieved a net profit of 300 million attributable to its mother, and its performance has changed significantly, in line with our expectations. The cash-to-cash ratio is higher than the cash-to-cash ratio, and the actual controller significantly increases the average price.89 yuan in 2018 the company’s cash ratio is 1.14, with an increase of 0.15 units; payout ratio is 1.72, increase by 0.A total of 72, or project advances due to the increase in projects started; net operating cash flow is 1.5.5 billion, with a decrease of 9.36%.The actual controller of the company increased its holdings of 4 trillion market capitalization shares from 2018 to the first quarter of 2019, 南京夜网论坛 increasing its average price by 2.89 yuan, accounting for 8 of the company’s total share capital.74%, showing the company’s actual controller’s confidence in the company’s long-term future development. Investment suggestions The integration of the Yangtze River Delta and the antiques of the Hangzhou 2022 Asian Games will release a lot of infrastructure needs. The company has obvious advantages in getting orders in the Yangtze River Delta. Orders are expected to continue to grow, and revenue conversion will accelerate.According to the company’s 2018 and first quarter results, we maintain the company’s EPS for 2019-2020 to 0.34, 0.The forecast of 38 yuan per share supplements the forecast EPS of 0 in 2021.38 yuan / share, corresponding PE is 8, 7, 7 times. Maintain “Buy” rating and maintain target price of 3.73 yuan. Risk warning:天津夜网 The project is not progressing as expected; the return of the investment trust plan will change with the fluctuation of the stock market.

Monetary policy new year and new weather: keep the focus and strengthen the orientation

Monetary policy new year and new weather: keep the focus and strengthen the orientation
In the past year, monetary policy showed obvious structural characteristics. About four “fancy” targeted reductions were made, and a medium-term loan facility (TMLF) was created to further enrich the monetary policy toolbox with practice.  There is a certain amount of power in the new year.Combined with the latest policy statement, the tone of the stable monetary policy has not changed, the orientation has changed, and precise drip irrigation is still the main feature of monetary policy operations. It maintains a reasonable and sufficient liquidity and escorts the stable development of the economy.  There is new weather in the new year.Combined with the direction of the development and transformation of monetary policy, whether monetary policy can more effectively respond to price increases, more reasonable market laws, and more meaningful “doubles coordination” with macro-prudential policies is worth looking forward to.  Orientation trend is more obvious. In 2018, monetary policy tools continued to innovate, and the characteristics of structure and orientation were obvious.During the year, there were 4 targeted reductions, and the total amount of funds released was about 2.3 trillion yuan; comprehensive use of reverse repurchase, medium-term borrowing facilities (MLF), mortgage supplementary loans (PSL) and other tools to provide liquidity of different maturities and increase medium and long-term liquidity supply.  In 2019, this “precision drip irrigation” trend is expected to continue.With the highest creation level at the end of December 2018 as a sign of medium-term lending facilities (TMLF), the directional tools are further enriched, and the directional characteristics are more obvious.  Bank of Communications chief economist Lian Ping pointed out that the central economic work conference’s formulation of monetary policy basically continued the fundamental tone of monetary policy in the past ten years, which means that monetary policy remains stable, liquidity is reasonable and sufficient, targeted adjustments, and precision drip irrigation is still the currencyThe main characteristics of policy operations continue to increase support for weak areas such as private and small and medium enterprises.At the same time, monetary policy adjustments will also be aimed at strengthening the budget and looking forward, and adjusting according to changes in economic expectations.At the same time, unless there is a serious distortion shock, monetary flooding is unlikely.  ”In 西安耍耍网 this case, it is expected that there may be 2 to 3 reductions in 2019, and the probability of targeted reductions.It is expected that the loan interest rate will soon fall, and the current benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans is the lowest in history. It is expected that the overall interest rate cut is still unlikely.”Lian Ping expected.  Li Chao, chief macro analyst of Huatai Securities, believes that in combination with the executive meeting of the State Council and the long-term statement from the Office of the Financial Committee, the probability of a gradual downward adjustment in January is high.  It is obvious that the TMLF interest rate is 15 basis points lower than the MLF interest rate, and it has also gradually increased the price substitution element in terms of quantity in the market monetary policy.  According to an article written by Zhang Xiaohui, the 杭州夜网论坛 former assistant to the president, China’s current monetary policy adjustment framework is in the process of changing from a quantitative type to a price type.In the next step, we can consider using the short-term repo rate in the open market as a component of the first-rate policy rate and regularly announce it to the public.Establish and improve the “interest rate corridor” with the standing lending facility (SLF) interest rate as the upper limit and the excess reserve or other deposit convenience instruments as the lower limit, replacing the market benchmark interest rate through open market operations, and in the supplementary monetary policy instrument portfolioTo more anticipate the price dimension of the target instrument, further rationalize the mechanism of gradually operating interest rates to the financial market and the real economy, and continuously improve the independent pricing ability of financial institutions, and finally realize the transformation of the monetary policy framework from quantitative to price.  Cooperate with macro prudential policies and increasingly encrypt and cut the report of the 19th National Congress of the People’s Republic of China. It is clearly required to improve the dual pillar framework of monetary policy and macro prudential policies.In 2018, the macro-prudential policy has been continuously improved, and countercyclical adjustments have become more and more proficient. In the macro-prudential assessment (MPA), evaluation indicators for small and micro-enterprises’ financing have been added; the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward exchange sales has been adjusted from 020%; restart the mid-price quote “counter-cyclical factor”.  The marginal changes in international and domestic economic and financial indicators in 2019 objectively require monetary policy and macro-prudential policies or strengthen “doubles coordination”.  The regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee recently pointed out that the counter-cyclical adjustment should be strengthened and the two-line framework of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy should be improved.At the same time, the new formulation of “promoting a sound monetary policy, enhancing the vitality of micro-subjects and forming a virtuous circle of triangles between capital market functions” also requires coordination between monetary policy and macro-prudential policies.  Zhang Xiaohui believes that monetary policy is mainly aimed at price stability and economic growth, while macro-prudential policy is mainly aimed at maintaining financial stability; monetary policy is mainly used to regulate aggregate demand, and macro-prudential policy is more targeted at increasing leverage;Monetary policy uses interest rates as tools, while comprehensive prudential policies are mainly aimed at adjusting capital requirements, leverage levels, and down payment ratios.Although each of the two policies has its own emphasis, there is a very close relationship between monetary policy and macro-prudential management. Even you have me and you have me, and they need to be integrated.  Lian Ping said that considering that domestic and foreign economic and financial indicators are still intricate in 2019, the internal financial markets, including the stock market, bond market, and exchange market, will still fluctuate. The risk of resonance in each market cannot be underestimated, and appropriate monitoring and monitoring are needed.Handle properly.

Gree Electric (000651) quarterly report comments: performance in line with expectations

Gree Electric (000651) quarterly report comments: performance in line with expectations

Event: The company released the 2019Q1 financial report, with single quarter revenue of 4.1 million yuan (+2.

5%), to achieve net profit of 56.

700 million (+1.

6%).

Single quarter gross margin was 30.

59% (-0.

27pct), with a single quarter net profit of 14.

05% (-0.

12pct) Under the keynote of reducing inventory, the revenue growth rate is relatively high compared to expectations.

In terms of the size of domestic sales: under the background of weak Q4 air terminal demand in the third quarter of 2018, and continuing to press the channel to the leading air conditioners, there are already about 45 million inventories in the channel, which is already at the absolute value of the high inventory in 2015Close.

Therefore, the keynote of Q2Q3Q4 in 2019 is to digest the channel inventory. In this context, the revenue growth rate of air-conditioning leaders is expected to be too high.

In terms of export indicators: In the context of the expected trade war in Q4 2018, there was a phenomenon of export rushing, and a certain length of overdraft of export demand in 2019Q1 was expected to improve in the future.

Expense rates remain stable.

2019Q1 company selling expenses 10.

2% (-0.

6pct), managing R & D expenses 5.

17% (+0.

43pct), financial expenses cost-0.

06% (+0.

22pct).

The overall cost costs 15.

31% (+0.

05pct), the overall cost rate remains stable.

At the end of the first quarter, other current debt subjects increased by about 900 million compared with the end of the fourth quarter of 2018. It is expected that there will be no excess provision.

Re-examine the air-conditioning degassing cycle in 2015. When the performance of the air-conditioning faucet is the worst, it is the best 杭州桑拿网 point to buy.

When the inventory of the air-conditioning industry was eliminated in 2015, the revenue growth rates of 2015Q1-Q4 were 0.

3%, -21.

8%, -22%, -57.

8%.

However, starting from 2015Q4, the leading air conditioners continued to grow, with a range increase of up to 50%.

The core reason is that when the performance of a listed company is poor, it generally means that the industry has entered a critical period of destocking, and it has also entered the bottom of the expected performance of the listed company. Thereafter, the inventory is gradually decommissioned, and the performance expectation of the leading air conditioner is gradually reduced.Get better.

At present, the inventory of air-conditioning channels is above 40 million, and the inventory level is relatively high. The key period of this year’s inventory de-allocation is the same sales season Q3; and the lowest and expected lowest point for the leading air conditioner will appear in Q3.The inventory of air conditioners has gradually disappeared and gradually improved.

Considering that it is usually a quarter ahead of fundamentals, the air-conditioning leader has come to a time of strong investment value.

Investment suggestion: The company’s EPS is expected to be 4 in 2019-2021.

4 yuan, 4.

9 yuan, 5.

4 yuan; the corresponding PE is 12 respectively.

8, 11.6, 10.

5. Risk warning of maintaining “Buy” rating: terminal prosperity is lower than expected, inventory de-allocation is lower than expected

Jiangsu Guotai (002091): Chemical business with good profit growth in trade business volume and price go up

Jiangsu Guotai (002091): Chemical business with good profit growth in trade business volume and price go up

1H2019 results are in line with our expectations Jiangsu Cathay announced 1H2019 results: revenue 178.

6 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.

44%, net profit attributable to mother 4.

6 ppm, an increase of 6 in ten years.

4%, corresponding profit 0.

29 yuan, in line with our expectations.

1H19 company deducts non-net profit3.

0.94 million yuan, an increase of 114% in ten years.

Thanks to the increase in revenue and the increase in gross profit margin2.

6pct, 1H19 company’s gross profit increased by more than 5.

US $ 8.6 billion. Investment income in 1H19 decreased by 5 as a result of increased investment income in the same period last year.

7.3 billion.

Revenue in the second quarter of 19 was 95.

700 million, an increase of 5.

9% / 15.

5%, net profit attributable to mother 2.

4.2 billion, an increase of 18.

1% / 10.

6%.

Development Trend 1H19 Trading business revenue and profits continue to grow.

Based on the advantages of 合肥夜网 effective supply chain management and actively innovating business service models, 1H19’s trading business income and profits continued to grow.

1H19’s trading business revenue was 169.

8.7 billion, a five-year growth of 5.

6%, gross profit increased by 34 in ten years.

8% to 18.

74 ppm, gross margin extension increased by 2.

39pct to 11.

03%, of which the export trade revenue was 126.

5.7 billion, a five-year growth of 5.

32%, gross margin increased by 3 in the short term.

54 points to 13.

15%; import business revenue 43.

3 ‰, an increase of 6 in ten years.

37%, gross margin is relatively constant 0.

91 points to 4.

85%.

Chemical business volume and price rose, and revenue grew rapidly.

According to the company’s interim report, benefiting from the increase in sales orders and the increase 青岛夜网 in sales prices, 1H19 company’s chemical business revenue increased.8% to 8.

29 ppm, gross margin extension increased by 2.

87pct to 26.

74%.

The revenue of Huarong Chemical, a subsidiary of tungsten and cobalt dopants, increased by 73% to 6.

Revenue of Chaowei New Materials, a subsidiary of the electronic chemicals business, increased by 38% to zero.

6.4 billion.

Continue to advance new chemical materials and new energy businesses.

The company continues to steadily push Poland into production from 4 to 2020.

Ruitai New Energy, a wholly-owned subsidiary, serves as a development platform for the company’s new chemical materials and new energy businesses, and will continue to develop new chemical materials and new energy businesses in the future.

Earnings Forecasts and Estimates Due to the growth of the trading business and the improvement in gross profit margin performance, while optimistic about the growth of crude oil, we raise our 2019 earnings forecast by 29% to 9.

180,000 yuan, maintaining the 2020 profit forecast10.

7.6 billion yuan.

The company currently meets the corresponding 2019/20 P / E ratio of 9.

5/8.

1x.

Maintain target price of 8 yuan, corresponding to 44% growth space and 14 / 12x P / E ratio for 2019/20, maintain outperform industry rating.

Risk trading business revenue and profit margins declined, and chemical business sales were lower than expected.

Weifu Hi-Tech (000581): Proposed stock repurchase for equity incentives to demonstrate confidence in future development

Weifu Hi-Tech (000581): Proposed stock repurchase for equity incentives to demonstrate confidence in future development

The company’s board of directors approved the repurchase program.

The company announced that it intends to use its own funds to repurchase part of the A shares within 12 months of the adoption of the repurchase program by the board of directors for the purpose of implementing equity incentives.

Based 武汉夜网论坛 on the repurchase amount, the lower limit of 6 million, 3 million and the upper limit of the repurchase price are 24 yuan / share. It is estimated that the repurchase shares will be approximately 25 million and 12.5 million shares, respectively, and the repurchase shares will account for approximately 2% of the company’s total share capital.

48%, 1.

twenty four%.

The company’s financial status is good, and share repurchases show confidence.

The company has abundant funds. Since 11 years, its monetary funds + bills receivable + other current assets + transactional financial assets have generally increased, reaching 87 at the end of the third quarter of 19th.

3 trillion, while the asset-liability ratio is only 26.

0%, long-term capital debt ratio (non-current liabilities / (non-current liabilities + shareholders’ 天津夜网 equity)) is only 3.

14%.

The company’s board of directors adopted the repurchase program to demonstrate the company’s confidence in the future development prospects. If the equity incentive is implemented smoothly, it will be beneficial to shareholders’ interests and the company’s interests.

The company may benefit from the recovery of the entire vehicle industry and an orderly layout of emerging areas.

The company’s performance is mainly contributed by investment income. The sales volume of the vehicle industry in the third quarter of 19 years ago was 10%.

2%, its joint venture Bosch Automobile Diesel, Zhonglian Electronics’ performance was affected, and the company’s return to its mother’s net profit margin declined.

0%.

We believe that the improvement of the supply and demand structure of the heavy truck industry and the increase in sales stability have brought about the improvement in the stability of the profitability of Bosch Automobile Diesel. While the passenger car industry has picked up, Zhonglian Electronics is expected to support the company’s performance recovery.

Although recently affected by the pneumonia epidemic, the epidemic in the medium term does not change the company’s development trend.

In addition, the company laid out an emerging area in an orderly manner under the control of occupation. In March 19, it issued an announcement intending to acquire a supplier of fuel cell components.

Investment suggestion: The company’s product barriers are extremely high, the stability of downstream heavy trucks is higher than expected, and the passenger car industry is gradually picking up.

We expect the company’s EPS to be 2 in 19-21.

06, 2.

06, 2.

16 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 8 respectively.

5, 8.

5, 8.

1 times.

The company’s valuation is at a historically low level. Based on the company’s historical valuation, the SW auto parts industry currently has a PE estimate of about 20 times and the PE valuation hub of international parts companies in recent years. We give the company 15 times PE in 2020 with a reasonable value of 30.

9 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: Macroeconomic growth is lower than expected; downstream prosperity is lower than expected; industry competition is higher than expected; epidemic effects are higher than expected.