Monetary policy new year and new weather: keep the focus and strengthen the orientation

Monetary policy new year and new weather: keep the focus and strengthen the orientation
In the past year, monetary policy showed obvious structural characteristics. About four “fancy” targeted reductions were made, and a medium-term loan facility (TMLF) was created to further enrich the monetary policy toolbox with practice.  There is a certain amount of power in the new year.Combined with the latest policy statement, the tone of the stable monetary policy has not changed, the orientation has changed, and precise drip irrigation is still the main feature of monetary policy operations. It maintains a reasonable and sufficient liquidity and escorts the stable development of the economy.  There is new weather in the new year.Combined with the direction of the development and transformation of monetary policy, whether monetary policy can more effectively respond to price increases, more reasonable market laws, and more meaningful “doubles coordination” with macro-prudential policies is worth looking forward to.  Orientation trend is more obvious. In 2018, monetary policy tools continued to innovate, and the characteristics of structure and orientation were obvious.During the year, there were 4 targeted reductions, and the total amount of funds released was about 2.3 trillion yuan; comprehensive use of reverse repurchase, medium-term borrowing facilities (MLF), mortgage supplementary loans (PSL) and other tools to provide liquidity of different maturities and increase medium and long-term liquidity supply.  In 2019, this “precision drip irrigation” trend is expected to continue.With the highest creation level at the end of December 2018 as a sign of medium-term lending facilities (TMLF), the directional tools are further enriched, and the directional characteristics are more obvious.  Bank of Communications chief economist Lian Ping pointed out that the central economic work conference’s formulation of monetary policy basically continued the fundamental tone of monetary policy in the past ten years, which means that monetary policy remains stable, liquidity is reasonable and sufficient, targeted adjustments, and precision drip irrigation is still the currencyThe main characteristics of policy operations continue to increase support for weak areas such as private and small and medium enterprises.At the same time, monetary policy adjustments will also be aimed at strengthening the budget and looking forward, and adjusting according to changes in economic expectations.At the same time, unless there is a serious distortion shock, monetary flooding is unlikely.  ”In 西安耍耍网 this case, it is expected that there may be 2 to 3 reductions in 2019, and the probability of targeted reductions.It is expected that the loan interest rate will soon fall, and the current benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans is the lowest in history. It is expected that the overall interest rate cut is still unlikely.”Lian Ping expected.  Li Chao, chief macro analyst of Huatai Securities, believes that in combination with the executive meeting of the State Council and the long-term statement from the Office of the Financial Committee, the probability of a gradual downward adjustment in January is high.  It is obvious that the TMLF interest rate is 15 basis points lower than the MLF interest rate, and it has also gradually increased the price substitution element in terms of quantity in the market monetary policy.  According to an article written by Zhang Xiaohui, the 杭州夜网论坛 former assistant to the president, China’s current monetary policy adjustment framework is in the process of changing from a quantitative type to a price type.In the next step, we can consider using the short-term repo rate in the open market as a component of the first-rate policy rate and regularly announce it to the public.Establish and improve the “interest rate corridor” with the standing lending facility (SLF) interest rate as the upper limit and the excess reserve or other deposit convenience instruments as the lower limit, replacing the market benchmark interest rate through open market operations, and in the supplementary monetary policy instrument portfolioTo more anticipate the price dimension of the target instrument, further rationalize the mechanism of gradually operating interest rates to the financial market and the real economy, and continuously improve the independent pricing ability of financial institutions, and finally realize the transformation of the monetary policy framework from quantitative to price.  Cooperate with macro prudential policies and increasingly encrypt and cut the report of the 19th National Congress of the People’s Republic of China. It is clearly required to improve the dual pillar framework of monetary policy and macro prudential policies.In 2018, the macro-prudential policy has been continuously improved, and countercyclical adjustments have become more and more proficient. In the macro-prudential assessment (MPA), evaluation indicators for small and micro-enterprises’ financing have been added; the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward exchange sales has been adjusted from 020%; restart the mid-price quote “counter-cyclical factor”.  The marginal changes in international and domestic economic and financial indicators in 2019 objectively require monetary policy and macro-prudential policies or strengthen “doubles coordination”.  The regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee recently pointed out that the counter-cyclical adjustment should be strengthened and the two-line framework of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy should be improved.At the same time, the new formulation of “promoting a sound monetary policy, enhancing the vitality of micro-subjects and forming a virtuous circle of triangles between capital market functions” also requires coordination between monetary policy and macro-prudential policies.  Zhang Xiaohui believes that monetary policy is mainly aimed at price stability and economic growth, while macro-prudential policy is mainly aimed at maintaining financial stability; monetary policy is mainly used to regulate aggregate demand, and macro-prudential policy is more targeted at increasing leverage;Monetary policy uses interest rates as tools, while comprehensive prudential policies are mainly aimed at adjusting capital requirements, leverage levels, and down payment ratios.Although each of the two policies has its own emphasis, there is a very close relationship between monetary policy and macro-prudential management. Even you have me and you have me, and they need to be integrated.  Lian Ping said that considering that domestic and foreign economic and financial indicators are still intricate in 2019, the internal financial markets, including the stock market, bond market, and exchange market, will still fluctuate. The risk of resonance in each market cannot be underestimated, and appropriate monitoring and monitoring are needed.Handle properly.