Shaanxi Coal Industry Co., Ltd. (601225) released a comment: Performance Express meets expectations and underestimates high-quality thermal coal leader

Shaanxi Coal Industry Co., Ltd. (601225) released a comment: Performance Express meets expectations and underestimates high-quality thermal coal leader
Core point of view: The net profit attributable to mothers in 2019 is about 116 trillion, which is in line with expectations.The company released the 2019 performance report, and the company realized a net profit of 115 in 2019.9.6 billion, a five-year growth of 5.5%, the average average ROE is about 20.9%.It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother was 25 in the fourth quarter of 19Q4.10,000 yuan, an increase of about 18% in ten years.  In 2019, the company’s coal production and sales will increase by 6 every year.4% and 23.8%.Judging from the raw coal production in 2019.From January 1, 2019, the company’s coal production and sales in 2019 increased significantly. According to the company’s announcement, the company’s raw coal production in 20191.1.5 billion tons, coal sales 1.7.杭州桑拿网7 billion tons, an increase of 6 each year.4% and 23.8%.In addition, the company’s coal price in 2019 rose steadily.According to Wind data, the thermal coal price index of Shaanxi Coal Trading Center will increase by 5 in 2019.8%.  The company’s coal production was less affected by the epidemic situation. After the holiday, the price of coal in Shaanxi’s producing areas rose sharply.The Shaanxi Coal Group to which the company belongs is the only state-owned large-scale coal enterprise in Shaanxi Province, with a high proportion of high-quality and advanced production capacity. The Shaanxi Coal Group’s coal production is less affected by the epidemic.According to Shaanxi Daily, as of February 11, 94% of the mines of Shaanxi Coal Group resumed production, and the supply of electric coal inside and outside the province was operating 四川耍耍网 normally.However, due to the slow resumption of production of private small and medium-sized mines in Shaanxi, affected by the epidemic after the holiday, the road transport spreads in stages, the supply and demand of coal in the producing area is tight, and the coal price has fluctuated recently.According to wind data, the price of pit openings at the end of bituminous coal (5500 kcal) in Yulin, Shaanxi has gradually increased by 71 yuan / ton or 18% after the holiday.  Profit forecast and investment advice.The company has excellent resource endowments and abundant resource reserves, and there is still room for growth in the medium and long-term coal industry.The extension, followed by Yuan Datan Coal Mine, Xiaobaodang Phase II was completed and put into production, and the company’s output was promoted year by year.At the same time, the company’s sales structure is expected to be gradually optimized. The Haoji Railway has been operating at the end of September 2019, and the company will benefit from the improvement of railway capacity in the medium and long term.The company’s EPS is expected to be 1 in 2019-2021.16 yuan, 1.09 yuan and 1.18 yuan.Considering the evaluation of comparable companies and the potential for performance growth, the company is given a 9-year PE valuation of 20 times, corresponding to a reasonable value of 9.77 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating.  risk warning.The downstream demand growth rate was lower than expected, the coal price fell more than expected, and the company’s new mine construction progress was gradually expected.